Election Prediction

Canada’s federal election is October 21st. For those who don’t know, Canada is politically a hybrid of the UK’s Parliamentary system and a federation like the USA. The Canadian government is bicameral, with an elected House of Commons and a Senate whose members are appointed by the Prime Minister, Canada’s de facto Head of State.

The Prime Minister is almost always the leader of the political party with the most seats in the House of Commons (although, no majority of seats is required).

The de jure Head of State is Queen Elizabeth II. Yup, the one from the UK. She is well liked in Canada, but has barely a ceremonial role in governance. Her representative in Canada is the Governor General, also appointed by the Prime Minister. (With all that authority to appoint, our Prime Minister looks more like a President.)

There are ten provinces who have similar political systems, for which the de jure Head of State is also Queen Elizabeth II. The big difference is they are unicameral, with one elected house, usually a Legislative Assembly. The Territories (look way up north) are held by Canada, but allowed local rule for the most part.

So you’ve got how it works in theory. In practice, federal power in the Canadian federation has been held by two factions: Toronto Tories (Conservative Party) or Montreal Whigs (Liberal Party).

Canada’s history is either one of these factions in power. Sometimes the ruling faction has a minority of seats in the House of Commons, and so they step lightly (as they are in danger of being turfed by a non-confidence vote, which ends the government and usually causes another election). However, one of those two factions has always been in power, and this coming election will not change that. As of now, both factions, Conservative and Liberal, are Progressive and highly so. It’s difficult to tell what the difference is. No matter who you vote for in Canada, the Progressives win.

When voting in Canadian elections, you vote for a local Member of Parliament in your riding. They represent their riding in the House of Commons. You are technically not voting for the leader. So, only those in the Montreal riding of Papineau vote for Justin Trudeau, leader of the Liberal party and Prime Minister, as a candidate. However, people often vote for a party, not based on the local candidate, but based on the leader of the party. So, the leaders of the parties tend to be the most important personality for campaigning purposes.

For the coming election, it seems the likeliest result is a minority government, based on what I’ve seen in the polls. The Conservatives don’t have the confidence of Canadians. Trudeau’s foibles and hypocrisy don’t seem to be hurting his party’s support sufficiently to end their reign. Either the Liberals or the Conservatives will have the highest number of seats, and may form an alliance with other parties to get a majority position, or go it on their own and hope that in a confidence vote, they can get enough support from the smaller parties to win.

I predict that we see a Conservative minority government. People are tired of Trudeau’s antics, and will want to give him a slap on the wrist. I don’t see the Conservatives allying with other parties. They could join with the Greens, if the conservationist elements of that party are strong, but the Greens have been spouting far left Progressivism lately, so not likely. The Liberals and the NDP would likely not formally join the Conservatives, as they are too far apart politically (even in the narrow Overton Window of Canada). This leaves the People’s Party of Canada, which is brand new, polling very low, and will likely get no more than a handful of seats. The Bloc Quebecois is another party the Conservatives could ally with, but that is a bit of poison pill, given the Bloc is a Quebec separatist party and disliked in the rest of the country.

So, Conservative minority it is. They do not have the skills, courage or leverage to make it last. Once they make a government, the Liberals, NDP, and Greens will all start howling about how Canada is run by racist, sexist, pro-life, flavour-of-the-month-o-phobic Nazis. The Conservatives will then start making apologies and purge anyone who has said anything non-PC. Within 9 months, the Conservatives will introduce a budget, Trudeau will lead the way in defeating the Conservatives (‘cuz Justin don’t compromise) and…within a year…we’ll be back in another election. There, my black pilled prediction.

A white pilled prediction would have a Conservative – People’s Party of Canada coalition with a solid majority. The notional conservatives would then have to take into account issues that Canadians actually care about or lose support from the PPC. Which would be funny, given that the PPC is an off-shoot of the Conservatives, after the party had a minor split at its last leadership convention.

I’ll be voting PPC in my riding. I’d probably just not vote otherwise, except for the PPC, who seem to be a party who could actually delay Canada’s accelerating slide into the decline and decay happening all across the west. Faint hopes I suppose. The PPC could also be a vehicle for real conservative (old Tory) principals to become acceptable discourse again. Plus, I’ve met my local candidate, and he seems like a decent fellow. The leader of the party, Maxime Bernier, has no problem calling people out. He rightly pointed out the Greta Thunberg is likely mentally troubled child who is being exploited.

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